International CFOs now have a extra optimistic financial outlook for China than the U.S., survey reveals
Chinese language and U.S. flags flutter close to The Bund, earlier than U.S. commerce delegation meet their Chinese language counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.
Aly Music | Reuters
Right now the world’s main chief monetary officers have a extra optimistic outlook for China’s financial system than they do for the financial system of the US. The Q3 CNBC International CFO Council Survey revealed on Friday. That’s the first time within the survey’s historical past that this elite corps of executives have been extra upbeat on China.
Within the newest survey, CFOs gave a mean outlook of “Steady” for China’s GDP, whereas seeing the U.S. financial system as “Modestly Declining.” All over the world, GDP outlook was typically improved from the second quarter survey, when no area was seen as secure. This quarter, together with China, the council upgraded the remainder of Asia and the Eurozone from “Modestly Declining” to “Steady.” Latin America went from “Strongly Declining” to “Modestly Declining”. However the U.S. financial system was seen as “modestly declining” for the second straight quarter.
The outlook echoes stories that China’s financial system is rebounding as life there begins to look increasingly prefer it did earlier than the pandemic. In July, China stated its financial system grew 3.2% within the second quarter. The U.S. financial system decreased at an annualized price of 32.9% in the identical quarter, the worst single-quarter decline in historical past.
China’s bounceback comes because the nation offers with the double-whammy of the pandemic and heightened tensions with the US over commerce, know-how and geopolitics. It has been spurred by ramped up authorities stimulus to fight the coronavirus-led downturn.
What lies forward for the U.S. market
CFOs additionally struck a cautious tone concerning the inventory market. Regardless of a fast restoration for shares from the market’s bottoming out in April, the council is break up on the place the market is headed subsequent. Statistics inform the story. In response to the survey, 42.5% say the Dow Jones Industrial Common will fall again beneath 25,000 earlier than it reaches 30,000 for the primary time. Practically one-third of executives (27.5%), suppose the report excessive will come earlier than one other downturn for the Dow.
The downbeat outlook for the U.S. financial system and the markets displays the continued state of uncertainty for giant firms within the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. Twenty-five of the 40 CFOs who responded to this quarter’s survey referred to as the pandemic the most important exterior danger dealing with their firms, whereas 80% say the pandemic can have a detrimental or very detrimental affect on their firm this yr. Just one CFO stated the pandemic shall be optimistic for his or her firm.
A technique many companies will handle the detrimental affect is thru layoffs. Greater than half of respondents say they count on their firm’s internet headcount to lower over the subsequent 12 months. Nearly 1 / 4 of CFOs stated the identical a yr in the past. And regardless of bettering financial conditions in Asia in comparison with different components of the world, CFOs within the APAC area have been more likely to say they count on their headcounts to lower in comparison with their U.S. friends.